PBC Film Room Friday: Transition Offense

The 2019-20 and 2018-19 NBA seasons have the fastest-paced seasons since the 1980’s. The average number of possessions per 48 minutes this season and last season have eclipsed the 100 possession threshold, the first such instances in thirty years. Given the increasing emphasis on transition offense, understanding a given collegiate prospect’s effectiveness at creating for themselves and others in up-tempo fast break scenarios is an essential piece of analyzing their potential projectability to the professional level.

In our fourth Film Room Friday installment of the 2019-20 scouting season, the PBC scouting team has performed a deep-dive into prospects with potential to translate as dynamic transition threats. To provide some context, let’s first lay out a few examples of NBA players that excel at pushing the pace to create high percentage looks for themselves and/or their teammates.

NBA Rookies and Sophomores: Ja Morant, Zylan Cheatham, Kevin Porter Jr.

NBA Veterans: Ben Simmons, Russell Westbrook, De’Aaron Fox

Recent NBA Retirees: Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Jason Williams

These lists are not meant as rankings, and are certainly non-exhaustive, but serve the purpose of providing some familiar examples of NBA players that exemplify this skill set.

Within the 2020 NBA Draft class, there are a handful of prospects that stand out as projectable fast break initiators and transition finishers. Among those ranked in the top 45 on consensus big boards are Tyrese Haliburton, Tre Jones, and Kira Lewis Jr.

Below, we will highlight three 2020 NBA Draft eligible prospects ranked outside of the top 45 on consensus big board rankings with the potential to add value in transition at the next level.

Taevion Kinsey

Wing | 6’5’’ | 185 lbs. | So. | Marshall | #1
PBC Consensus Ranking: 100+

Taevion Kinsey’s athleticism really shows in transition and he’s one of the most fun players to watch in transition because of it. Kinsey ranks in the 90th percentile in transition + assists, bringing in 1.552 points per possession (PPP). He does a great job at using his explosiveness off the ground to finish around the basket and put together highlight plays. When scoring, he’s more comfortable filling in the wing or leaking out instead of being the primary ball handler, but as you can see above, he’s also a pretty solid passer in transition. While he is very comfortable throwing lobs, he also shows patience on a lot of other plays where he’s waiting for someone to cut or finds the open man on the wing when the defense is scrambling.

Jemarl Baker Jr.

Combo Guard | 6’4’’ | 200 lbs. | So. (RS) | Arizona | #10
PBC Consensus Ranking: 100+

Jemarl Baker Jr. might be one of the best passers in transition in all of college basketball. He has a 3.8 AST/TO ratio (19 assists:5 turnovers) in transition and has perfected the pass ahead passes over the top. The touch and placement on his passes are near perfect, and he’s proven that he’s capable of even making some passes with his left hand. When he’s not hitting the pass aheads, he’s doing a good job at surveying the floor and being patient, waiting to find the open man. While he’s a much better passer than scoring threat in transition, his three point shooting must be accounted for in transition. Shooting 38+% from beyond the arc on the year, he does a great job at trailing plays and hitting threes at the top of the key. Even though he rarely attacks the basket, he had a really impressive finish in against Washington as highlighted above.

Marcus Zegarowski

Lead Guard | 6’2’’ | 180 lbs. | So. | Creighton | #11
PBC Consensus Ranking: 100+

Marcus Zegarowski  is also a dynamic transition threat, but unlike Baker and Kinsey, he does a great job at putting pressure on the rim. Kinsey does finish around the rim quite a bit, but mostly from filling lanes compared to Zegarowski pushing the pace himself. Something that is apparent in the video above is that Zegarowski loves getting Creighton out and running, even off of made baskets. Like Baker, he’s able to knock down threes in transition. He also has plenty of transition baskets or assists this year coming off of made baskets and just pushing the pace. He ranks in the 94th percentile in transition + assists, with a 2.5 AST/TO ratio. While putting pressure on the rim by attacking, he forces the defense to commit so he can dump it off to teammates. 

*Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology

Zach Milner is an NBA Draft analyst for the Stepien and serves as a Scouting and Film Intern for the Professional Basketball Combine. Zach has video coordinator experience at a Division 1 basketball program using Synergy Sports Technology to cut film, breaking down statistics, coding practices with Sportscode, and helping the coaching staff scout upcoming opponents.
Follow Zach on Twitter @ZachMilner13.

​Jon Chepkevich serves as the Director of Scouting for the Professional Basketball Combine. In his role at Stats Perform, Jon develops commercial strategy, performs financial analysis, develops NBA minutes projections, and works with the basketball data group to enhance the Stats Perform NBA Draft model. When he isn’t in the office, Jon enjoys Chicago’s competitive pick-up hoops scene, dissecting NBA draft prospects as a credentialed scout, and spending time with his wife, Andrea, and dog, Ruthie.
Follow Jon on Twitter @JonChep.